Pages

Thursday, March 31, 2011

>> life contingencies [1]..

another LC question..


you are given:
- 2 states
  -> preferred with annual expected losses of 400
  -> standard with annual expected losses of 900

- no change in the expected losses for either class over the next 3 years
- the transition matrix
     0.85   0.15
     0.60   0.40

- i = 0.05
- no expenses
- losses are paid at the end of the year
- all insured remain insured for following 3 years

calculate the 3 year term insurance single benefit premium for a standard driver


okay..
soalan ni dia mintak SBP kan..?
so..
mmg berguna nombor 400 & 900 tu..
baru aku paham..
no tu digunakan utk cari SBP (single benefit premium) or APV (actuarial present value)..

untuk menjawab soalan di atas..
seperti biase..
kene cari 2Q(2,1) dulu..


2Q(2,1) = [ 0.6  0.4] [ 0.85  0.15 ] = [ 0.75  0.25]
                        0.60  0.40  


untuk cari SBP standard driver for 3 year term insurance..
guna formula ni..

SBP = (b^t standard)*v + (b^t Q(2,1))* v^2 + (b^t 2Q(2,1))* v^3 
    = 900*((1.05)^-1) + (400*0.6+900 *0.4)*((1.05)^-2) 
      + (400*0.75+900*0.25)* ((1.05)^-3)
    = 1895 #

yes..
the answer is 1895..

the thing that i wonder now is..
what is the function of having this words?
losses are paid at the end of the year
term insurance

i mean..
is it the same kind of technique and formula if they give
'paid at the beginning of the year'
'whole life insurance', 'endowment insurance', etc..??

hurm..
lets study more..
(^_^)v


>> katilku patah..

saat ku hampir2 lena dibuai mimpi..
tiba2 aku terdengar bunyi..
crackk...
pastu tiba2 je aku rasa katil aku melendut..
aku pun check la..

sah..!!
katil aku patah..!!




patah dua tu beb..!
cantik pulak tu rekahan dia..
sah2 org yg buat katil ni x check betul2 ni..

huhuhuhuhu..
aku nk tido kt mane..??
TT_TT


pakcik..!
saya sgt memerlukan katil baru..
='(


nak kata katil lama..
baru jek tukar tahun lepas..
xsampai 5 bulan pun aku rasa..
ape punye kualiti la..
=_="




last2 aku sumbat je sume manual aku kat bawah tu..
nasib baik muat..
ye la..
manual kan sume tebal2 belaka..


ape punca dia leh patah sampai mcm ni skali ek..??
nk kata aku ganas sgt..
x jugak..
dulu rilex je aku tido atas katil kayu yg dh berapa tahun guna kat matrix dulu..
xpernah patah pun..

apekah puncanya..??


>> life contingencies problem..

For Shoestring Swim Club, with 3 possible financial states at the end of each year:


(i)  state 0 means cash of 1500. if in state 0, aggregate member charges for the nest year are set equal to operating expenses.
(ii) state 1 means cash of 500. if in state 1, aggregate member charges for the next year are set equal to operating expenses plus 1000, hoping to return the club to state 0.
(iii) state 2 means cash less than 0. if in state 2, the club bankrupt and remains in state 2.
(iv) the club is subject to 4 risk each year. these risk are independent. each of the 4 risks occurs at most once per year, but may recur in a subsequent year.
(v) 3 of the $ risk each have a cost of 1000 and a probability of occurrence 0.25 per year.
(vi) the 4th risk has a cost of 2000 and a probability of occurrence 0.10 per year.
(vii) aggregate member charges are received at the beginning of the year.
(viii) i = 0


calculate the probability that the club is in state 2 at the end of 3 years, given that it is in state 0 at time 0.




kalau aku tiba2 bagi korang soalan kat atas ni..
apa yg korg pikir..??
adakah sama mcm ape yg aku pikir..??
skip je soklan ni..
ye..
jawapan saya skip je..
buat soklan lain..

tapi..
nk taw x..??

actually..
kalau skip..
you freely loose 5 marks..

nk taw fact yg lagi hebat x..??
soklan ni gune Markov Chain..!!
yer..
stochastic processes..

dan yg lagi hebatnye..
soklan ini xde la sesusah yg anda bygkan..
yer..
ia mmg susah..
tapi bukan lagi sampai tahap maksima..
sampai berguling2 atas lantai tarik rambut sendiri sebab xdpt buat..
*mengarut..*

anda hanya perlu taw mcm mana nk cari probability of transitioning to state by state..

okay..
tadi dlm soklan ade ckp kite start from state 0 kan..??
so kita kena kira dari state 0 to state 0,1,2 berapa probability dia..

0 to 0 : Pr (no claims) = (0.75^3)*(0.9) = 0.38
0 to 1 : Pr (one $1000 claim) = 3C1*(0.75^2)(0.25)(0.9) = 0.38
0 to 2 : 1 - 0.38 - 0.38 = 0.24

why 0.75??
 read (v). 
it said that probability of occurrence = 0.25, 
but we want probability of not occurrence, which is 1-0.25 =0.75

why 0.9??
read (vi).
it said that probability of occurrence is 0.1,
and we want the opposite, 
so 1-0.1 = 0.9


therefore, we will get this matrix :
          0.38     0.38     0.24
          0.38     0.38     0.24
           0           0          1

the question ask you what is the probability that the club in state 2 at the end of 3 years, given that it is in state 0 at time 0.

therefore,

3Q(0,2) = [ 0.38  0.38  0.24 ] [ 0.38  0.38  0.24 ] [ 0.24 ]
                                                 0.38  0.38  0.24      0.24
                                                    0       0       1           1

and you will get the answer = 0.561024  #


but..
what does the long story about..??
perlu ker..??
wajib ker buat ayat panjang2 sampai aku rase mcm jawab soklan bio pulak ni..??
okay..
Mr Ravee ckp the story leads you to get the matrix..
but..
i only found a few line that is useful enough..
what about the rest..??
ape significant cash 1500 in (i), 500 in (ii), 1000 in (iv), 2000 in (v)...??
and what is is the operating expenses..??


hurm..
better study further to find it out..


argh..!!
wanna scream right now..!!
>.<"

you will find it easy when you look at the answer..
but try to do it yourself before you see the answer script..
you will lost..







Tuesday, March 29, 2011

>> tambang murah Air Asia..



hurm..
kira-kira..
tambang pergi-balik = RM 529 + RM 699 = RM 1228..
murah ke tu..??
sebab aku ade la jugak kan dengar ura2 ambang pergi sahaja RM2000 ++


heheheehee..
niat di hati mmg la nk pergi..
tapi..
paham2 je la kan...
=_="


Changmin..!!
meh jemput saya kat sini meh..!!
*shouting as if he can hear me..*



>> testing testing 1 2 3..

tadi wat sesi pergambaran utk presentation titas esok..
last minute betul..
kan..??
tapi xpe la..
dah siap dah pun..


ni dia kumpulan TITAS aku..

1st try..

2nd try..
argh..!!
poven buat slack..!!
>.<"

yes..!
jadik pun..
(^_^)v

lepas dismiss..
ni member aku yg sorg ni pun teringin la kan nk amek gmbr dia..
ye la..
dari tadi dok jadi cameraman jek..
okay..
snap gmbr dia la pulak..

ni dia..
encik Qhari..

hahahahahaahaa..
dia mula2 dh posing mcm kitorg posing tadi..
aku gelak..
dia pun ikut gelak tgk aku gelak..
kan dh xsempat nk snap gmbr dia tgh posing tu..
sumpah lawak giler..
hahahaahaa..


aku & ilie..
nampak kot muka baru bgun tido..
=_="



apesal muke qhari ngan hakim tu..??
hahahahahaa.. 

dah lame kitorg x amik gmbr ramai2 mcm ni..
kan..??
kan..??

esok..
jom bergambar lagi..!!
nak..??
v(^_^)v


p/s: bila agaknye korg nk bagi hadiah birthday aku..?? 

>> budak baik..

saya baru perasan..
saya budak baik rupanya..
nape saya ckp begitu..??
sbb ni..
tgk gmbr ni betul2..


hehehehehe.. 
(^__^)v


Saturday, March 26, 2011

>> grrrrr....

you will never understand what i feel..
because you never had this kind of me in yourself..

so..
don't be too offensive with me..
okay..??

>> JYJ World Tour Concert 2011..


ceyt..
title tak nak kalah..
padahal bukannya Malaysia termasuk pun dalam tour tu..


okay..
memandangkan mereka (JYJ) akan mula buat tour kat Asia bulan April ni..
yes..
April..
every weekend in April ni dorg kat Asia..
untuk lebih spesifik..
kat Thailand, Indonesia & Singapura..
Malaysia..??
still not confirm yet..
ala..
kalau confirm pun aku xdpt pergi..

skrg ni Thailand & Indonesia dah keluarkan teaser for the concert..
you know what..??
bila aku gatal2 tgk teaser ni..
huk3x..
*tersedak kejap..*
keinginanku utk pergi konsert melonjak2 semula..!!


dem..!
liana..
please behave yourself..



JYJ in Thailand



JYJ in Indonesia



and more over..
aku dpt taw..
ade someone nak jual tiket konsert JYJ in Thailand on 2&3 April  4500 Baht..
setelah google tgk currency converter..
4500 Baht = RM 450..
okay liana..
lupekan saje la niat itu..


mood: makan hati berulam jantung je la aku.. 


Friday, March 25, 2011

>> mesej..

tepat pukul 1.08pm..
aku dapat mesej dari nombor yg x dikenali..

From: +6014xxxxxxx
Message : 
Liana hr steak house ko taw kt mane?

aku jadi bingung seketika..
siapa pemilik no. ni..?
mcm mane dia taw no aku ni..??
siap taw nama aku lagi..
pelik yg amat la..
pastu aku dgn penuh curiosity pun balas la mesej tersebut..

From : +6012xxxxxxx   <-- no phone aku
To: +6014xxxxxxx 
Message : Reply: 
Sape ni?

ringkas..
dan tepat..
itu yang aku perlu tanya dulu sebelum apa2 terjadi..

selang beberapa saat selepas itu.
handphone Sony Ericsson K550 aku pun berbunyi..
menandakan mesej baru masuk..

nak taw ape beliau balas..??

From : +6014xxxxxxx 
To: +6012xxxxxxx 
Message : Reply: 
Kori ensem aka brad pit

terkesima sesaat..
lantas aku pun tergelak terbahak2 kat situ jugak..
mwahahahahahahaha..


member aku yg sorg ni mmg kreatif memperkenalkan diri dia..
hahaha..


>> outing dengan adik..

hari jumaat lepas..
aku pegi jalan2 ngan adik2 aku, Nizam & Sofia..
Bangsar --> Sg. Wang --> Low Yat --> Times Square

Bangsar : cabut gigi
Sg. Wang : makan
Low Yat : beli Kapersky Internet Security
Times Square : jalan-jalan

sekali keluar..
biar pergi byk2 tempat skali..
xpayah susah2 keluar sampai 2-3 kali..
kan..??


mula2 pergi Bangsar..
adik aku, Sofia nak cabut gigi..
fyi,
my sister-in-law is a nurse kat Klinik Gigi Bangsar..
so senang la kan kalau nk cabut gigi kan..
xpayah susah2 nk amek nombor tunggu beberapa jam..
hehehehe..

kat LRT Bangsar..
tgk adik2 aku fill in the footsteps punye icon kat lantai tu..
hehehe..
tgk sofia ade kemam something kat mulut dia tu kan..?
itu maknanya baru lepas cabut gigi la tu..


lepas pergi cabut gigi..
kitorg pergi Sg.Wang dulu..
sebab adik2 aku ckp nk makan KFC..





tgk adik2 aku makan KFC..
sama banyak makan mcm aku..
hehehe..
nanti aku date aku rasa mcm nk bawak la adik2 aku je la dua org ni..
biar kasi pokai sama encik pakwe..
hahahahaha..

*kompem xde org nk date ko liana.. =_="*


pastu pergi Low Yat untuk beli antivirus..
adik aku, Iwan baru dapat laptop..
alang2 aku dah keluar ni..
sekali harung la ke Low Yat sekali belikan dia antivirus ni..



lepas dapat je..
terus gerak pergi Time Square..
Nizam kata dia x pernah pergi sana..
kesian la pulak kan..


sampai2 je kat TS..
cuba teka which place that he want to visit the most..??

yes..
theme park..


aku janji ngan diorang..
kalau dorg penuhkan tabung dorang yang besar tu..
baru aku bawak dorg main kat sini..
ntah tahun bile ntah la nk penuh kan..??




yes..!
aku lagi kurus dari 2 adik aku ni..
hahahahahahaa..
*poyo..!*
=_="

pas puas tgk theme park..
dorg 'ketuk' aku lagi..
Sofia mintak name-sticker..
Nizam mintak spray party..
haha..
"bila lagi kan..??"
ayat yg paling best..
^__^

>> phone baru..

kawan-kawan ku sekalian.. 
akhirnya.. 
aku dah beli hadphone baru..!! 
yeay..!! 


ni dia wajah phone baru aku..

i-phone 4 tu beb..!
jgn memain..
thanx to diri sendiri sebab akhirnya berjaya beli i-phone ni..


.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
okay..
aku tipu..
sorry.



aku mana mampu beb nk beli bende2 canggih cenggini..
huhuhu..
sedih nye..!


tapi x salah kan kalau nk berangan2 sikit..?
hehe..


ni aku ade la jugak usha2 sikit beberapa jenis phone yg aku agak minat tapi xde la minat sampai perlu memilikinya..



1. Sony Ericsson XPERIA Neo

sumpah smart..
slim..
cantek..
cun..
perfect..!
tapi..
ehem2..
aku xboleh r dgn touchscreen ni weyh..!
tangan aku jenis basah..
so paham2 je la yek kesesuaian & keserasian tgn yg basah dgn brg2 touchscreen..
=_="

next please...

2. Blackberry Bold 9780


3. Blackberry Curve 9300




dan sekutu dgnnya..
ntah bila la aku boleh memiliki henpon2 cenggini..
haish~
=_="

tapi kan..
blacberry punye screen mmg kecik ek..??
hohohoho..
x best la mcm nie..

ehem ehem...
xde sape2 ke nk bagi aku henpon baru..??


takpe la kalau xnak beli pun..
henpon lama aku masih berfungsi dengan baik..
kecuali keypad '5' xboleh tekan la kan..
tu je..
dah setahun lebih aku boleh hidup tanpa keypad '5'.. 
agak2 aku bleh x bersabar lagi tunggu another 3 years..??
mesti boleh kan..??
so..
aku guna je la dulu..
dah kerja nanti..
habis la..
sume aku beli..
keh3x..


fyi..
perasaan ingin memiliki henpon baru tu x kuat lagi..
tunggu la sampai aku betul2 teringin kang..
time tu baru kelam kabut kumpul duit nk beli phone..
hehehehe..
peace..!
(^_^)v




reminder for myself :
liana..!! before beli phone.. pergi amek lesen dulu la...!!!! 
>.<"


Thursday, March 24, 2011

>> perli..


hahahahahahahahahahahaha..
mmg terguling2 la aku..


>> kahwin empat..


"sayang.. sayang penat ke buat kerja2 ni sume..? xpe.. esok abang cari lagi satu..tak ke best kalau dapat laki penyayang mcm nie..??"
bini dia penat.. 
dia cari pembantu.. 
a.k.a bini lagi satu.. 
siot sungguh..

"kalau boleh aku nk kawen 4.. sume bini2 aku duduk satu rumah.. sorg basuh baju, sorg kemas umah, bla bla bla..."
aik..??
ko ingt bini ko tu kuli ko ke ape..??
ceyt..


"agak gila di situ kalau 4 bini nak 4 rumah.. x mampu aku.."
taw pun xmampu..
tapi kawen mampu pulak..
haish~


*dialog from Hakim*

ish3x..
=_="

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

>> muka comel..


hari sabtu lepas.. 
aku mmg saje je la kan layan anak2 buah aku kan.. 
aku ajar la marissa buat muka comel.. 
hehehe.. 
ala.. 
gaya ala2 korean style punye comel gitu.. 
mcm yoogeun ni..


and guess what..?? 
sekali ajar.. 
marissa dah terror dah buat muka comel.. 
hehehehe...
^__^


"marissa.. mcm mane buat muka comel..??"




"marissa.. buat muka comel sikit... hehe..."


 hahaha.. ter'posing' mcm cik ana dia pulak.. hahaha.. =D


eeeei.. sukanya dia... geram..!! rase mcm nk cubit2 jek dia.. >.<"


okay liana.. 
hari sabtu ni jumpa dia yer..
pasni kene ajar buat angelic baby face mcm junsu pulak..



peace..!!
(^_^)v


 

Copyright © my name is liana. Template created by Volverene from Templates Block
WP by WP Themes Master | Price of Silver